In my last column, I covered "food shortages" in "energy resources, water, and food shortages." This time, I would like to write about "insufficient energy resources".
Let's take up the data on energy resources from "BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008".

● How much energy resources are you using?

In 2007, it used about 11.1 billion tons (11,099.3 million tons) of energy equivalent to oil equivalent in the world. It increased 1.25 times in the 10 years of 1997 and 2007. On average, it grows by about 2.2% every year. However, during the latter five years of 2002 and 2007, it has increased by an average of about 3.1% each year. Of oil, natural gas, nuclear power, hydropower and coal, coal consumption is the fastest growing. Growth of 4.67% from 2006 to 2007. Oil growth is low. 2006 Increased by 1.07% in 2007. Oil consumes 35.61% of energy consumption, followed by coal at 28.63%.

● How much energy resources are left?

The world's proved reserves of energy resources are as follows.

However, it is important to note that the number of years that can be harvested has​ ​historically increased rather than decreased. In fact, in 1930, oil was supposed to be recoverable for about 18 years. It was 30 years in 1960 and 45 years in 1990. I think that the increase in proved reserves was greater than the increase in the amount used. Therefore, resources are not always depleted in years close to this recoverable number.

In recent years, with the rapid expansion of coal demand, the recoverable years of coal have been decreasing rapidly year by year (according to BP statistics: 2004 192, 2006 155, 2008 133). It is about to become.

In any case, even as proved reserves increase, resources that can be easily extracted at low cost are expected to decrease. Therefore, even if the recoverable years do not decrease (or increase), it will still be difficult to obtain energy resources at low prices in the long run.

● Soaring energy resources

As you all know, the price of energy resources has skyrocketed since 2000. The graph below shows the changes in the most typical crude oil prices over a period of about 140 years. Here, the dark green line shows the actual price at that time, and the yellow-green line shows the price replaced with the current monetary value. What had been around $ 20 a barrel in the 1990s has finally surpassed $ 100 in 2008. In addition to rising global energy demand, concerns about global political instability and speculative capital movements are likely to create this situation. Also, in the long run, as mentioned in relation to the reserves-to-production above, fossil fuel resources are unlikely to return to the low prices of the 1990s and settle down again.

People in developed countries are in trouble because the price of gasoline is rising, but the rise in crude oil prices is affected not only by the price of fuels such as gasoline directly, but also by everything including those produced using energy. In particular, it has also affected the rise in food prices mentioned last time, which is putting poor people in developing countries into a more critical situation, and both urgent and long-term measures are needed.

Following on from the water and food we have covered so far, energy resources such as oil have become indispensable for humankind to survive. However, it is clear that the fossil-derived energy resources currently used in the mainstream will become even rarer and more expensive resources in the next 100 years or so if demand continues at this rate. is. Of course, it is important to control the generation of CO2, but I think it is more urgent and important what we do in the situation where prices are rising more than that.

Nuclear power is in the limelight more than ever as a possible solution to both this shortage of energy resources and the problem of CO2. Next time, I would like to talk about the use and disposal of radioactive materials in this regard.

October 15, 2008 Hironobu Matsui